China’s dioctyl phthalate (DOP) export market experienced a notable slowdown in September 2026 following a strong performance in August. Monthly export volumes declined by more than 36% month on month, while cumulative exports for the first nine months of the year remained approximately 10% higher than in the same period of 2025.

Despite the monthly decline, China’s DOP export market continued to demonstrate resilience. Export demand across multiple overseas markets, domestic price fluctuations, raw material costs, and changes in production capacity will remain important factors shaping market performance in the final quarter of 2026.

1. Overview of China’s DOP Import and Export Data

1.1 DOP Imports Remain at a Low Level

In September 2026, China imported approximately 81.66 metric tons of DOP, representing a 13.09% decrease from August. Total imports from January to September reached 853.66 metric tons, up 34.35% year on year.

Although cumulative imports recorded relatively strong percentage growth, the overall import volume remained small compared with exports. This highlights the importance of domestic production in supplying China’s DOP market.

1.2 DOP Exports Decline Sharply in September

China exported 12,264.74 metric tons of DOP in September 2026, down 36.56% month on month and 16.04% year on year. However, cumulative exports from January to September reached approximately 128,300 metric tons, representing a 10.19% increase compared with the same period last year.

April recorded the highest monthly export volume of the year, at approximately 20,300 metric tons, while January was the weakest month, with exports below 10,000 metric tons.

The contrast between September’s decline and positive year-to-date growth suggests that the market has maintained an overall expansion trend despite short-term fluctuations. August’s strong export performance also provides context for September’s month-on-month contraction.

2. Analysis of China’s DOP Export Structure

2.1 Export Destinations Become More Diversified

From January to September 2026, China exported DOP to approximately 90 countries and regions. The top 15 destinations accounted for around 92,400 metric tons, or approximately 72% of total exports.

Egypt was the largest export destination, receiving 19,634.57 metric tons, equivalent to 15.30% of total exports. Japan ranked second with 8,278.75 metric tons, accounting for 6.45%. Kenya followed with 7,945.95 metric tons, or 6.19%, while Nigeria imported 7,326.05 metric tons, representing 5.71%.

These figures indicate that demand is distributed across several major overseas markets, including destinations in Africa and Asia. Egypt’s leading position highlights the importance of the North African market, while Japan remains a significant Asian destination. Kenya and Nigeria also represent important markets for Chinese DOP exporters.

For suppliers, this distribution offers opportunities to develop different regional customer groups rather than relying exclusively on one destination. However, actual market potential will depend on local demand, competing suppliers, freight costs, import requirements, and customers’ acceptance of current price levels.

2.2 Major Exporting Provinces

Shandong Province remained China’s leading DOP export source by shipment volume, accounting for 34.14% of total exports. Zhejiang Province ranked second at 13.13%, followed by Liaoning Province at 10.34%.

Shandong’s leading share reflects its importance in China’s chemical manufacturing and trading supply chain. Zhejiang and Liaoning also contribute significantly to the country’s export supply.

For overseas buyers, the concentration of shipments in these provinces may provide opportunities to compare suppliers in terms of product specifications, production capacity, packaging options, loading arrangements, and delivery schedules.

3. Factors Affecting the DOP Market

3.1 Rising Domestic Prices

The average domestic DOP price in September was reported at RMB 10,355 per metric ton, an increase of approximately 13% from August.

Higher prices can support producers’ selling expectations, but they may also reduce purchasing interest among overseas buyers. When importers face higher replacement costs, they may postpone purchases, reduce order sizes, or wait for more favorable quotations.

This could partly explain why export volumes weakened in September despite positive cumulative growth.

3.2 Limited Supply Growth and Improving Domestic Demand

According to the supplied market data, DOP production increased by 10.79% in September, although supply remained within a relatively low-to-medium range for the year.

Domestic demand gradually improved ahead of the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays. Some downstream users replenished inventories to ensure sufficient material availability during the holiday period.

This improvement in domestic purchasing activity may have redirected some supply toward the domestic market. At the same time, elevated prices may have made Chinese DOP less attractive to some international buyers, especially where freight and other import costs were also high.

3.3 Raw Material and Energy Cost Support

DOP prices are influenced by the costs of key upstream materials, including 2-ethylhexanol and phthalic anhydride. Changes in crude oil prices and broader petrochemical market conditions can also affect cost expectations and market sentiment.

When upstream costs rise, DOP producers may become less willing to offer substantial discounts. However, higher production costs do not necessarily translate into stronger downstream demand.

As a result, the market may experience a tension between firm producer offers and more cautious purchasing behavior from customers.

4. DOP Market Outlook for October–December 2026

4.1 High Prices May Continue to Restrict New Export Orders

In October, DOP prices continued to rise, with the Jiangsu market reaching approximately RMB 10,850 per metric ton, according to the supplied data.

Although stronger prices may reflect continued cost support, they can also limit the willingness of overseas customers to place new orders. Importers may become more cautious when evaluating inventory levels, resale margins, and the risk of purchasing at a market peak.

High ocean freight rates on certain routes in October may create additional pressure on shipment economics. These conditions could affect both new order negotiations and the loading schedules of previously confirmed orders.

4.2 A Possible Price Correction

With market prices operating at elevated levels and transaction activity slowing, a modest price correction cannot be ruled out. Lower offers could help restore purchasing interest and encourage downstream buyers to replenish inventories.

Nevertheless, a correction may be limited if upstream raw material costs remain high. The market’s direction will depend on the balance between production costs, supply availability, domestic demand, and export purchasing activity.

For international buyers, short-term price movements may create opportunities to negotiate more competitive offers. However, purchasing decisions should also consider delivery lead times, freight quotations, and the risk of further market volatility.

4.3 Potential Increase in Production Capacity

Domestic DOP supply may increase toward the end of 2026. The restart of a plant in Ningbo and the release of additional capacity in Guangdong were identified as potential contributors to higher production.

The supplied market forecast suggests that monthly output could exceed 120,000 metric tons in November or December. If this production growth materializes, greater supply availability could intensify competition among domestic sellers and influence export pricing.

However, additional production alone does not guarantee lower prices. The final impact will depend on operating rates, downstream consumption, inventory accumulation, and the extent to which export demand absorbs the additional supply.

4.4 Annual DOP Exports May Continue to Grow

China’s DOP exports are expected to remain an important outlet for domestic producers. Based on the supplied forecast, full-year exports could reach approximately 170,000–180,000 metric tons in 2026.

Achieving this range would require exports to remain active during the final quarter. The outcome will depend on whether overseas demand can absorb Chinese supply at prevailing price levels and whether freight costs and shipment schedules remain manageable.

The year-to-date increase of 10.19% provides a positive foundation, but September’s year-on-year decline indicates that export performance is not uniform across all months.

5. What DOP Buyers and Traders Should Watch

For overseas importers, distributors, and downstream manufacturers, several factors deserve close attention in the coming months.

• Price competitiveness: Compare supplier quotations against current domestic prices, freight charges, and total landed costs.

• Raw material trends: Monitor movements in 2-ethylhexanol and phthalic anhydride, which may influence DOP production costs.

• Supply availability: Track plant restarts, new capacity, and operating rates to assess whether additional supply is reaching the market.

• Export demand: Follow shipment volumes to major destinations such as Egypt, Japan, Kenya, and Nigeria.

• Logistics: Confirm vessel schedules, freight rates, loading windows, and delivery commitments before finalizing orders.

• Purchasing strategy: Consider staggered procurement and inventory planning where commercially appropriate, rather than relying solely on a single price forecast.

6. Conclusion

China’s DOP export market recorded a significant month-on-month decline in September 2026, with exports falling to 12,264.74 metric tons. Nevertheless, cumulative exports for January–September reached approximately 128,300 metric tons, maintaining year-on-year growth of 10.19%.

The market is currently influenced by high domestic prices, upstream cost support, changes in domestic demand, and the possibility of increased production capacity toward year-end. While a moderate price correction may help revive trading activity, the extent of any decline will depend on cost conditions and the balance between supply and demand.

Looking ahead, China’s DOP export performance will depend on the competitiveness of domestic offers, the resilience of overseas demand, and the development of logistics costs. Buyers and traders should continue monitoring price movements and supply conditions to make informed purchasing decisions in the final quarter of 2026.

Disclaimer: This article is for general market information only and does not constitute investment, trading, or purchasing advice. Forecast figures are indicative and may change as market conditions evolve.