1. Market Overview

China’s soda ash market is currently characterized by reduced production, declining inventories and relatively weak downstream demand. Plant maintenance and operational disruptions have tightened short-term supply, while most downstream buyers continue to purchase on an as-needed basis.

As maintenance progresses and more plants gradually resume normal operations, soda ash production is expected to recover. However, the current market remains under pressure from weak demand, cautious purchasing sentiment and limited inventory-building intentions.

Spot and futures prices remain relatively low, supporting some downstream restocking and improving transaction activity in certain market segments. Nevertheless, the overall market sentiment remains cautious.

In the short term, soda ash prices are expected to fluctuate within a limited range. Reduced supply may provide some support, although weak demand and the anticipated recovery in production are likely to restrict significant price increases.

2. Supply: Plant Maintenance Reduces Production

Plant maintenance has become a major factor influencing the recent soda ash market. Several manufacturers have reduced operating rates or suspended production for maintenance, resulting in a substantial decline in industry output.

As of October 15, 2026, China’s weekly soda ash production totaled 605,600 tons, down 108,300 tons, or 15.17%, from the previous week.

Production by product type was as follows:

• Light soda ash: 306,500 tons, down 21,600 tons week-on-week.

• Dense soda ash: 299,100 tons, down 86,700 tons week-on-week.

The overall capacity utilization rate fell to 64.59%, compared with 76.15% in the previous week, representing a decrease of 11.55 percentage points.

The ammonia-soda process recorded a capacity utilization rate of 73.43%, while the combined soda ash production process stood at 63.56%. Both figures reflected weaker operating conditions during the reporting period.

Among 16 enterprises with annual production capacity of at least one million tons, the overall capacity utilization rate was 70.70%, down 15.16 percentage points according to the reported data.

Daily soda ash production was reported at approximately 84,000 tons, marking a new low for the year. Maintenance and operational disruptions are expected to continue affecting supply, although production should gradually recover as maintenance work is completed.

The pace of production recovery will therefore remain an important factor in determining short-term price movements.

3. Inventory: Manufacturer Stocks Continue to Decline

Reduced production and improved shipments have contributed to a decline in soda ash inventories across Chinese manufacturers.

As of October 15, 2026, total soda ash inventory at domestic manufacturers stood at 1.6289 million tons, down 81,300 tons, or 4.75%, from Monday of the same week.

By product type:

• Light soda ash inventory: 853,800 tons, down 36,400 tons week-on-week.

• Dense soda ash inventory: 775,100 tons, down 44,900 tons week-on-week.

Compared with the previous Thursday, total manufacturer inventory decreased by 149,800 tons, or 8.42%. Light soda ash inventory fell by 78,400 tons, while dense soda ash inventory declined by 71,400 tons.

Compared with the same period last year, total inventory was down 71,600 tons, representing a decrease of 4.21%.

The decline in inventory reflects the combined effects of lower production and relatively active shipments. However, lower inventory does not necessarily indicate a strong recovery in end-user demand. Some purchases have been driven by favorable prices and immediate replenishment needs rather than a significant improvement in consumption.

Social Inventory and Delivery Warehouse Stocks

Following the decline in futures prices, the price relationship between the futures and spot markets encouraged some downstream buyers to replenish stocks. This contributed to improved transaction activity.

As of October 15, inventory held in delivery warehouses exceeded 540,000 tons.

Changes in social inventory and delivery warehouse stocks remain important indicators for assessing whether recent restocking activity can be sustained. A continued decline in inventories could provide short-term support to prices, while a reversal in the trend may indicate renewed supply pressure.

4. Market Transactions and Outstanding Shipments

Recent soda ash transactions have been supported by existing orders and maintenance-related supply reductions. Some manufacturers have maintained relatively stable market conditions by prioritizing shipments and fulfilling outstanding orders.

However, the pace of new orders has slowed. Manufacturers are currently receiving orders on a more selective basis, with transactions occurring sporadically rather than showing broad-based growth.

Outstanding shipments at soda ash plants have fluctuated within a narrow range, approaching 11 days, representing a slight increase.

The market is therefore showing mixed signals. Lower production and declining inventories are helping support prices, but the limited volume of new orders suggests that downstream demand remains insufficient to drive a strong market recovery.

Going forward, transaction volume, newly received orders and changes in outstanding shipments will be key indicators of market direction.

5. Production Costs and Industry Profitability

Soda ash production costs have remained stable to slightly higher, mainly due to movements in coal and raw salt prices.

Coal prices have been generally stable with a slight upward trend, while raw salt prices have remained relatively steady, with increases in some regions. These factors have kept production costs under pressure.

For manufacturers using the combined production process, ammonium chloride prices have recently stabilized and are expected to increase within a limited range in the near term.

Meanwhile, soda ash selling prices remain low. Both combined-process and ammonia-soda manufacturers are experiencing losses, with reported losses approaching RMB 200 per ton.

The combination of relatively firm production costs and weak selling prices has significantly compressed profit margins across the industry.

If raw material costs continue to rise while soda ash prices remain depressed, manufacturers may face additional financial pressure. Conversely, sustained production cuts could help ease supply pressure and provide some support to market prices.

6. Float Glass Market: Inventory Pressure Limits Price Recovery

The float glass market in China showed mixed performance during the reporting week. Following the National Day holiday, manufacturers faced inventory pressure and increased their efforts to move products. As a result, price movements varied across regions.

The average float glass price during the reporting period was RMB 1,075 per ton, down RMB 1.63 per ton from the previous period.

Regional Market Performance

North China: Downstream buyers replenished inventories moderately after the holiday, and overall sales remained acceptable. However, high inventories and weak market expectations encouraged manufacturers to prioritize shipments. Some companies reduced prices, while transaction terms remained flexible.

Northeast China: Sales were generally average after the holiday. Some manufacturers lowered prices, while certain regions experienced additional price adjustments. Downstream demand remained moderate, with buyers focusing mainly on essential purchases.

East China: Price negotiations became more active as manufacturers sought to reduce inventory pressure. Price increases by major producers in Zhejiang provided support to the spot market. Nevertheless, downstream buyers remained cautious and replenished stocks according to existing orders and immediate requirements.

Northwest China: The focus of price negotiations eased slightly, reflecting relatively limited changes in market conditions.

Central China: Prices remained broadly stable. A small number of manufacturers adopted flexible pricing strategies to improve sales, while most companies focused on maintaining relatively stable inventory levels. Downstream buyers continued to purchase as needed and selectively replenish stocks when prices were attractive.

Southwest China: Most manufacturers maintained stable prices, with sales remaining moderate. Some companies recorded improved sales due to expectations of production shutdowns, leading to slight price increases.

South China: Market prices returned to more normal levels after the holiday. Some large processing companies replenished inventories, supporting sales for several manufacturers. A number of producers attempted to raise prices, while others remained cautious because of competition from lower-priced supplies from outside the region. Downstream buyers continued to prioritize immediate demand.

Overall, the float glass market remains constrained by inventory pressure and cautious purchasing. Regional differences in supply, pricing strategies and demand continue to influence transaction performance.

Float Glass Production Profitability

According to Longzhong Information’s production cost calculation model, the average weekly profits for float glass production during October 9–15, 2026, were as follows:

• Natural gas-fired float glass: -RMB 146.17 per ton, an improvement of RMB 5.71 per ton week-on-week.

• Coal-fired float glass: -RMB 165.08 per ton, a decrease of RMB 16.88 per ton week-on-week.

• Petroleum coke-fired float glass: -RMB 169.12 per ton, unchanged from the previous week.

These figures indicate that float glass manufacturers continue to face profitability challenges. Differences in fuel costs and regional market conditions are contributing to varying financial performance across production methods.

Persistent pressure on glass manufacturers may affect their operating decisions and, in turn, influence future demand for soda ash.

7. Photovoltaic Glass Market: Supply Cuts Offset Weak Demand

The photovoltaic glass industry continued to implement production reduction measures during the reporting period. One production line underwent cold repair, while downstream demand showed no significant improvement.

Purchasing activity remained relatively low during the National Day holiday. In the new round of monthly price negotiations, order releases were slow, and module manufacturers continued to prioritize the consumption of existing inventories.

Actual procurement demand rebounded slightly during the week, contributing to a modest decline in industry inventory.

The September settlement price was reported at approximately RMB 10.5 per square meter. For October, photovoltaic glass manufacturers showed a willingness to maintain or increase prices.

However, the market remains caught between supply-side reductions and weak downstream demand. Whether prices can rise sustainably will depend largely on the purchasing capacity and order demand of photovoltaic module manufacturers.

Supply and Inventory Conditions

As of October 15, 2026, the actual operating capacity of the photovoltaic glass industry stood at 66,045 tons per day, after deducting production cuts caused by kiln blockages. This represented a decrease of 1.12% from the previous week.

The capacity utilization rate was 49.03%, down 0.56 percentage points week-on-week.

One production line underwent cold repair during the week. Although no definite cold-repair plans had been announced for the following week, the industry's coordinated production reduction plan suggested that another production line might undergo cold repair in the near future.

The inventory of sampled photovoltaic glass manufacturers totaled 2.1041 million tons, equivalent to 44.20 days of usable inventory. This was down 1.56% from October 8.

These figures indicate that production reductions are helping ease inventory pressure, but the market has yet to achieve a substantial improvement in the supply-demand balance.

8. Key Factors Affecting Soda Ash Prices

Several factors are expected to influence the direction of China's soda ash market in the coming weeks.

1. Plant Maintenance and Production Recovery

The completion of maintenance will determine how quickly supply returns to the market. Faster production recovery could increase supply pressure, while extended maintenance may provide additional short-term price support.

2. Manufacturer and Social Inventory

Further inventory declines may help stabilize prices. However, a renewed accumulation of stocks would indicate that supply is recovering faster than demand.

3. Downstream Purchasing Activity

The sustainability of recent restocking will be critical. Purchases driven by lower prices may improve temporarily, but a stronger market recovery requires more consistent demand from glass and other downstream industries.

4. Raw Material Costs

Coal and raw salt prices will continue to affect soda ash production costs and manufacturers' profitability. Rising costs may limit the scope for price reductions, although weak demand could prevent manufacturers from fully passing on higher costs.

5. Futures Prices and Market Sentiment

Futures price fluctuations, macroeconomic expectations and changes in trading activity may influence spot-market negotiations and downstream purchasing decisions.

6. Float Glass and Photovoltaic Glass Operations

The operating rates, inventory levels and production plans of downstream glass manufacturers will remain important indicators of future soda ash consumption.

9. Soda Ash Price Outlook

Short-Term Outlook

In the short term, soda ash prices are expected to fluctuate as reduced supply and declining inventories provide some support, while weak downstream demand limits upward momentum.

Lower futures prices have encouraged some buyers to replenish stocks, improving spot-market transactions at competitive prices. However, the market remains cautious, and a sustained price increase will require stronger demand and continued inventory reductions.

Prices may remain relatively stable overall, although some high-priced offers could face slight downward adjustments.

Medium- and Long-Term Outlook

Over the medium to long term, supply is expected to recover as plant maintenance is completed. If production increases while downstream consumption remains weak or stable, the market may continue to face an oversupply situation.

Demand from some downstream industries may also remain under pressure, limiting the need for additional raw material inventories.

As a result, the overall supply-demand imbalance is unlikely to change significantly in the absence of a meaningful improvement in consumption. Soda ash prices may continue to fluctuate at relatively low levels, with limited potential for a substantial rebound.

10. Conclusion

China’s soda ash market is experiencing a period of reduced production, declining manufacturer inventories and cautious downstream purchasing.

Plant maintenance has tightened short-term supply, while low prices have encouraged some restocking and improved transaction activity. Nevertheless, weak demand from float glass and photovoltaic glass manufacturers continues to limit the market’s recovery potential.

In the coming weeks, the balance between production recovery and downstream demand will be the main factor influencing price movements.

Market participants should closely monitor plant maintenance schedules, inventory changes, new orders, raw material costs and futures market trends when evaluating purchasing decisions.

Risk Factors: Coal prices, commodity market sentiment, macroeconomic expectations, futures price fluctuations, corporate orders, inventory changes, manufacturer price adjustments and unexpected operational disruptions may all affect the market outlook.

Data and forecasts are based on the information available as of October 15, 2026. Market conditions and prices are subject to change.