1. Market Focus in August

① The United States has imposed stricter economic sanctions on Iran, while international mediators continue efforts to promote peace talks.

② Mediators reported that the United States and Iran had made progress toward a potential ceasefire agreement. The market is cautiously assessing the possibility of a return to negotiations, while the future direction of bilateral relations remains uncertain.

③ Reports indicate that the United States has rejected the reinstatement of the previous memorandum of understanding, leaving the geopolitical situation between the United States and Iran highly uncertain.

2. Ethylene Tar Market Analysis

The domestic ethylene tar market generally moved higher in August, with prices rising across most major regions.

On the cost side, international crude oil prices increased overall during the month, raising production costs for ethylene plants and providing stronger cost support for ethylene tar.

From the supply and demand perspective, downstream buyers mainly maintained a need-based purchasing strategy, with rigid demand providing basic support to the market. Overall market supply remained relatively stable, while most market participants adopted a cautious wait-and-see approach.

Supported by higher prices of related products, particularly high-temperature coal tar, ethylene tar prices remained relatively firm across most regions. The Northeast market was comparatively stable. Regional price differences were mainly influenced by ethylene plant operating rates, downstream demand, and the availability and circulation of regional resources.

Overall, the domestic ethylene tar market showed a stable-to-firm trend in August, although regional differences remained evident.

3. Ethylene Tar Market Outlook for September

Crude Oil Cost Outlook

International crude oil prices are expected to face downward pressure in September.

On the supply side, continued tensions between the United States and Iran have disrupted the global oil market. Although diplomatic communication channels have been established, and the possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in September could support a gradual recovery in crude oil transportation, supply flows are unlikely to return immediately to pre-conflict levels. The risk of disruptions to Middle Eastern crude oil shipments remains.

At the same time, major oil-producing countries continue to maintain relatively resilient production, leaving room for global crude oil supply to increase. Overall supply-demand fundamentals are therefore expected to remain relatively loose.

On the demand side, the U.S. summer driving season is approaching its end, weakening seasonal fuel demand. Refineries across the Northern Hemisphere are gradually entering their autumn maintenance period, which will place pressure on crude oil processing demand. Although some Asian refineries are expected to resume operations, the potential increase in refinery utilization remains limited by Middle Eastern crude oil arrivals.

In terms of monetary policy, market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's September interest-rate decision remain a key factor. U.S. inflation and employment data will continue to influence rate expectations, while fluctuations in the U.S. dollar may create short-term volatility in crude oil prices.

Geopolitical risks will remain an important variable. Although the U.S.-Iran standoff is unlikely to be resolved quickly, the market is gradually pricing in the current geopolitical situation. If mediation efforts make further progress, the geopolitical risk premium in crude oil prices could gradually decline.

Overall, international crude oil prices are expected to weaken in September 2026 as geopolitical risk premiums are gradually digested and seasonal demand fundamentals soften.

WTI is expected to fluctuate within the range of USD 77–87/barrel, while Brent crude is expected to trade between USD 83–93/barrel.

High-Temperature Coal Tar Outlook

The high-temperature coal tar market is currently supported by relatively strong costs, tightening supply, and medium-to-high downstream demand.

The latest round of price increases has primarily been driven by tight supply. Without significant production cuts from downstream industries, the supply shortage is unlikely to ease substantially in the short term.

However, the continued increase in downstream product prices has also increased resistance to further cost increases. Therefore, although high-temperature coal tar prices are likely to remain at elevated levels, the potential for further significant gains appears limited. A short-term correction cannot be ruled out, but the overall high-level price trend is expected to remain unchanged.

Homogeneous Fuel Oil Outlook

With international crude oil prices expected to weaken, cost support for the homogeneous fuel oil market is likely to soften.

Market participants are expected to remain cautious, with purchasing activity focused mainly on immediate requirements. On the supply side, major domestic refineries continue to face relatively tight supplies of low-sulfur residual oil and asphalt. Meanwhile, the expected arrival of the September peak consumption season is likely to improve purchasing interest.

Tight raw material availability, combined with seasonal demand, will provide some support for marine fuel costs.

On the demand side, ship bunkering at major ports is expected to remain a relatively rigid demand item in September. However, transactions are likely to remain fragmented, with downstream marine fuel traders and port bunkering companies maintaining a risk-averse procurement strategy. Most buyers are expected to follow a sales-driven purchasing model rather than actively build inventories.

The average monthly price of marine 180CST fuel oil is expected to reach approximately RMB 5,750/ton in September 2026, up RMB 83/ton month-on-month, or 1.46%.

Downstream Carbon Black Outlook

The carbon black market is expected to remain at relatively high levels in September, with prices fluctuating within a narrow range.

At the beginning of September, the market is likely to maintain its previous high-level operation. Meanwhile, high-temperature coal tar prices are expected to remain firm due to immediate downstream demand, providing continued cost support for carbon black.

On the demand side, tire manufacturers are mainly purchasing according to current orders and maintaining relatively cautious inventory strategies. As a result, demand-side support remains limited.

Nevertheless, favorable cost conditions and expectations for the traditional peak season are expected to provide some support for new carbon black orders. Overall, carbon black prices are likely to remain firm but with limited upside potential.

Ethylene Tar Outlook

The ethylene tar market is expected to fluctuate at high levels in September, with a possible rise in the early stage followed by some correction later in the month.

On the cost side, international crude oil prices are expected to weaken, which will reduce cost support for ethylene tar.

On the supply side, Yangzi Petrochemical and Hainan Refining & Chemical are scheduled to resume operations in September, while CNOOC Shell is expected to enter a maintenance period during the same month. In addition, the continued shift toward lighter feedstocks at ethylene plants is expected to limit the increase in ethylene tar production. As a result, overall market supply is likely to remain relatively stable.

On the demand side, downstream industries are entering the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, and purchasing activity is expected to improve moderately. However, downstream companies remain cautious about inventory levels and are unlikely to engage in large-scale stockpiling.

Meanwhile, elevated high-temperature coal tar prices will continue to provide some support for ethylene tar prices.

Overall, the ethylene tar market will receive support from seasonal downstream demand and firm related-product prices. However, weakening crude oil fundamentals and a gradual reduction in geopolitical risk premiums are expected to limit the upside.

Therefore, domestic ethylene tar prices are likely to remain at relatively high levels in September, with prices potentially strengthening in the early stage before coming under pressure and correcting as crude oil prices weaken.